|
The
complexity and uncertainty of today impose new models of enterprising
action. Models that diagnose tendencies of the market fast and arise
the dangers and the opportunities in each phase of an economic growth
or crisis.
World facts, like a regional war, a "terrorist"
act, a crisis in a stockmarket but also a smaller local fact can
influence the developments in our world "village".
Living
in this modern time, the factors that affect enterprising activity are
much complex compared with the past. "Globalisation" created
a new environment in which States, Organisations and Enterprises that
yesterday did not have any interest or possibility of action, can act
today. This process of "globalisation" is to a large extent
based on objective factors that are connected with the technological,
social and political developments of the last decade of the twentieth
century, that created a new world map. Also, with the populations and
nations creating new expectations, purposes and targets, with the enterprises
to recompose their forces, in order to seek a new strategy in this new
but more uncertain environment that is created each time when we have
large historical realignments and changes either in the political, economic
or social sector or even in the scientific and technological sector.
These
developments in combination with the complexity of economic operation
create a number of unanticipated factors that affect the environment
synthetically and “shake” the air that established studies, forecasts
and enterprising drawings that were based in the "classic"
analysis, the intuition or the experience, and lead giant enterprises
in failing. There are many the examples of large enterprises that could
not realise in time the new conditions that created the newer technological
revolution with the result to lose the preferential places that they
owned in the market.
The
enterprising environment is a dynamic sub system, which is connected
and communicates with a number of other sub systems, which are altered
continuously with the passage of time and influence one each other.
A malfunction in the Communications sector of an enterprise has drastic
effects in the Order, the Supply and its Distribution sector. The development
of this system is not linear but dynamic. Hundreds variables influence
its development in the passage of time. Sometimes the change of an "accidental"
factor in a sub system creates chain effects in the systems with unfavourable
results most times. For example, a negative development in a big stock
market affects, in general, negatively the remainder of other stock
markets since the global market is one.
The
"Butterfly Effect" is well known from the acquaintance of
Lorenz: "If a butterfly strikes her feathers in an Amazon basin
it can influence meteorological changes after certain days in the United
States" showing that long-lasting meteorological forecast is not
effective. A small fault in our estimates for certain developments can
lead to serious faults to long-lasting forecasts. This is called "sensitive
dependence from the initial conditions ". A dynamic system can
develop with a linear way or not. The operational environment is a dynamic
system. When it is developed with a linear way then it is developed
"physiologically" and "foreseeable". When it presents
not linear behaviour, the chaos befalls and the system becomes not "foreseeable".
Each
time we are trying to seek the factors that are connected with the enterprising
uncertainty and how we can approach them so that we can decrease the
uncertainty or even neutralise it, so that we avoid the "chaos"
or to decrease the unfavourable repercussions from the "chaos"
which in a certain time is inevitable.
The intuition and crisis are two of the
most powerful supplies of administrating an enterprise. Perhaps in the
previous years were enough for the planning out of an effective Strategy.
However, today are not enough. Scientific research and documentation
is needed. The system of an enterprise is a dynamic sub system that
changes with the remainder sub systems that surrounds it. The examination
of factors of uncertainty that affect this system and the designing
tools and methods that will help us to "harness" the uncertainty
or to comprehend it are a modern necessity for the enterprise.
This
is the role of InfoSoft net. To help its customers - enterprises
to draw the suitable tools and organise effectively Integrated
Informative Systems which will be capable to give to the administration
the informations in order to act in time and take decisions that
will make capable the enterprise to face the uncertainty and to
engrave a suitable Strategy.
Kostas
Hainas
Mathematician - Programmer
Systems Analyst
MSc of Athens University of Exonomics and Business
Chairman and Directing Advisor of InfoSoft net SA
|